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The reasons of divorces - psychological research

The psychologists try to predict closely if there will be the divorce in the future of the marriage couple. As Sueddeutsche Zeitung writes, the advisers are aimed to predict the risk of divorce. There are a lot of well known factors which show the threat to a marriage. Anyway, it confirmed by Michael Wagner, the scientist from Keuln University, who occupied with the research of the reasons of divorces. He considered the relations in a number of marriages and has analyzed that such kind of reasons as childlessness, age difference, religion and professional activity cause the reasons of divorce.
Having analyzed many parameters, it is possible to build the model and make conclusions about risk. For example if a couple has a separate apartment, this factor reduces risk of divorce on 45 percents and the unfaithfulness of one of the partners considerably raises this probability. If the wife is busy with professional activity, and the level of her education is higher than the level of her husband, then the risk also grows. If the marriage couple have the common child, or they lived together more than half a year before the marriage, then the risk is reduced.
The settlement models that are used by psychologists are extremely smart. You can foresee with probability up to 91 percent whether the couple will break up or not, says John Gottman, the famous American psychologist in search of divorces. Besides, some more scientists believe in the reliability of the models (mostly made by their own). But the psychologist Volfrang Lutz from the Trir University has stayed some doubts that such a models are really authentic. Lutz refers to the researches which have established a true level of reliability of the prognoses of divorce - from 20 to 40 percent.
From all variety of researches it becomes clear, that the probability of divorce raises when a wife and a husband talk to each other with a great contempt, when they provoke or criticize each other. The new researches show that the development in the communication is very important. If one of the partners speaks too much, and another one does not, in such case the satisfaction from a marriage is reduced. The correlation of the praise and criticism also influences on the life stability of the marriage. According to the words of Gottman, the marriages are especially strong in the case when the praise and criticism are in the ratio 5:1. In other words, one critical remark should follow 5 Compliments. It is especially important, that this principle "five to one " was observed by the husband because the role of the woman in the relationship does not have a big probability of divorce.
Along with the style of communication between the husband and a wife, there three more factors that influence on the marriage: the belief in the future of the relationship, the perception of daily stresses and similarity of the partners. In one of researches it was possible to prove, that so named "time trouble" and daily stress raise the risk of the divorce. A lot of factors of the risk are very difficult or even impossible to change: the size of living space, age or religion. However viability of a marriage, as the scientists say, depends more often from those factors which can be influenced, for example, from the style of communication or the will of the couple to support each other.

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